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2022 Governor · AZ

Data Orbital · fieldwork ended 2022-11-05 (3 days before the election) · 550 respondents · Live Phone/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 46.6% · Republican 49.7%

R+3.1

The certified result

Democrat 50.32% · Republican 49.65%

D+0.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.6 − 49.7 = -3.10
  2. Actual margin = 50.318 − 49.650 = 0.668
  3. Signed miss = -3.10 − (0.668) = -3.769
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.769| = 3.769

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.8 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81596, race ID 8954 (538 database).