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2022 Senate · WA

Moore Information Group · fieldwork ended 2022-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone/Online Panel · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 47.4%

R+0.4

The certified result

Democrat 57.15% · Republican 42.63%

D+14.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 47.4 = -0.40
  2. Actual margin = 57.148 − 42.630 = 14.518
  3. Signed miss = -0.40 − (14.518) = -14.918
  4. Absolute miss = |-14.918| = 14.918

The poll overstated the Republican by 14.9 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81602, race ID 8950 (538 database).