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2022 Senate · NC

Data for Progress · fieldwork ended 2022-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 1,322 respondents · Live Phone/Online Panel/Text-to-Web/Mail-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 51%

R+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.27% · Republican 50.50%

R+3.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 51 = -6.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.273 − 50.499 = -3.226
  3. Signed miss = -6.00 − (-3.226) = -2.774
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.774| = 2.774

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81603, race ID 8940 (538 database).