2022 Senate · WI
Civiqs · fieldwork ended 2022-11-06 (2 days before the election) · 739 respondents · Online Panel/Online Ad
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 50%
R+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.41% · Republican 50.41%
R+1.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 50 = -1.00
- Actual margin = 49.405 − 50.413 = -1.008
- Signed miss = -1.00 − (-1.008) = 0.007
- Absolute miss = |0.007| = 0.007
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81604, race ID 8951 (538 database).