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2022 Governor · WI

Civiqs · fieldwork ended 2022-11-06 (2 days before the election) · 739 respondents · Online Panel/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 48%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.15% · Republican 47.75%

D+3.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 48 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.149 − 47.752 = 3.397
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (3.397) = -0.397
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.397| = 0.397

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81604, race ID 8986 (538 database).