2022 Governor · OH
Civiqs · fieldwork ended 2022-11-06 (2 days before the election) · 716 respondents · Online Panel/Online Ad
The poll said
Democrat 39% · Republican 53%
R+14.0
The certified result
Democrat 37.38% · Republican 62.41%
R+25.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 39 − 53 = -14.00
- Actual margin = 37.377 − 62.406 = -25.029
- Signed miss = -14.00 − (-25.029) = 11.029
- Absolute miss = |11.029| = 11.029
The poll overstated the Democrat by 11.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81605, race ID 8976 (538 database).