2022 Senate · IN
Civiqs · fieldwork ended 2022-11-06 (2 days before the election) · 707 respondents · Online Panel/Online Ad
The poll said
Democrat 38% · Republican 49%
R+11.0
The certified result
Democrat 37.87% · Republican 58.62%
R+20.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 38 − 49 = -11.00
- Actual margin = 37.872 − 58.618 = -20.746
- Signed miss = -11.00 − (-20.746) = 9.746
- Absolute miss = |9.746| = 9.746
The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81606, race ID 8929 (538 database).