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2022 Senate · NH

Data for Progress · fieldwork ended 2022-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 1,995 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Online Panel/Text-to-Web/Mail-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 47%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.49% · Republican 44.44%

D+9.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 47 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.495 − 44.435 = 9.060
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (9.060) = -6.061
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.061| = 6.061

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81609, race ID 8938 (538 database).