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2022 Senate · WI

Data for Progress · fieldwork ended 2022-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 1,504 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Online Panel/Text-to-Web/Mail-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 53%

R+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.41% · Republican 50.41%

R+1.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 53 = -6.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.405 − 50.413 = -1.008
  3. Signed miss = -6.00 − (-1.008) = -4.993
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.993| = 4.993

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81611, race ID 8951 (538 database).