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2022 Senate · NV

Data for Progress · fieldwork ended 2022-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 1,100 respondents · Live Phone/Online Panel/Text-to-Web/Mail-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 49%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.81% · Republican 48.04%

D+0.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 49 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.814 − 48.037 = 0.777
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (0.777) = -2.777
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.777| = 2.777

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.8 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81612, race ID 8937 (538 database).