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2022 Governor · NV

Data for Progress · fieldwork ended 2022-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 1,100 respondents · Live Phone/Online Panel/Text-to-Web/Mail-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 48%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.30% · Republican 48.81%

R+1.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 48 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.297 − 48.807 = -1.510
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (-1.510) = -0.490
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.490| = 0.490

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81612, race ID 8972 (538 database).