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2022 Governor · FL

Data for Progress · fieldwork ended 2022-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 1,436 respondents · Live Phone/Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 57%

R+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 39.97% · Republican 59.37%

R+19.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 57 = -15.00
  2. Actual margin = 39.971 − 59.374 = -19.403
  3. Signed miss = -15.00 − (-19.403) = 4.403
  4. Absolute miss = |4.403| = 4.403

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81613, race ID 8959 (538 database).