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2022 Senate · OH

Data for Progress · fieldwork ended 2022-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 1,413 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Online Panel/Text-to-Web/Mail-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 55%

R+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.92% · Republican 53.03%

R+6.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 55 = -10.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.923 − 53.035 = -6.112
  3. Signed miss = -10.00 − (-6.112) = -3.888
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.888| = 3.888

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81614, race ID 8942 (538 database).