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2022 Governor · OH

Data for Progress · fieldwork ended 2022-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 1,413 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Online Panel/Text-to-Web/Mail-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 38% · Republican 62%

R+24.0

The certified result

Democrat 37.38% · Republican 62.41%

R+25.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38 − 62 = -24.00
  2. Actual margin = 37.377 − 62.406 = -25.029
  3. Signed miss = -24.00 − (-25.029) = 1.029
  4. Absolute miss = |1.029| = 1.029

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81614, race ID 8976 (538 database).