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2022 Governor · PA

Patriot Polling · fieldwork ended 2022-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 846 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 51.5% · Republican 45%

D+6.5

The certified result

Democrat 56.49% · Republican 41.72%

D+14.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51.5 − 45 = 6.50
  2. Actual margin = 56.486 − 41.715 = 14.771
  3. Signed miss = 6.50 − (14.771) = -8.271
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.271| = 8.271

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81617, race ID 8979 (538 database).