Skip to content

2022 Governor · AZ

Data for Progress · fieldwork ended 2022-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 1,359 respondents · Live Phone/Online Panel/Text-to-Web/Mail-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 52%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.32% · Republican 49.65%

D+0.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 52 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.318 − 49.650 = 0.668
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (0.668) = -4.669
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.669| = 4.669

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.7 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81618, race ID 8954 (538 database).