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2022 Senate · CO

co/efficient · fieldwork ended 2022-11-05 (3 days before the election) · 856 respondents · IVR/Text

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 43%

D+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.88% · Republican 41.27%

D+14.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 43 = 8.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.884 − 41.266 = 14.618
  3. Signed miss = 8.00 − (14.618) = -6.618
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.618| = 6.618

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81620, race ID 8922 (538 database).