2022 Governor · FL
The Political Matrix/The Listener Group · fieldwork ended 2022-11-06 (2 days before the election) · 722 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 52%
R+4.0
The certified result
Democrat 39.97% · Republican 59.37%
R+19.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 52 = -4.00
- Actual margin = 39.971 − 59.374 = -19.403
- Signed miss = -4.00 − (-19.403) = 15.403
- Absolute miss = |15.403| = 15.403
The poll overstated the Democrat by 15.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81623, race ID 8959 (538 database).