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2022 Governor · AZ

Targoz Market Research · fieldwork ended 2022-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 560 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 50%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.32% · Republican 49.65%

D+0.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 50 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.318 − 49.650 = 0.668
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (0.668) = -2.669
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.669| = 2.669

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.7 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81626, race ID 8954 (538 database).