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2022 Governor · OH

Targoz Market Research · fieldwork ended 2022-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 505 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 32% · Republican 62%

R+30.0

The certified result

Democrat 37.38% · Republican 62.41%

R+25.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 32 − 62 = -30.00
  2. Actual margin = 37.377 − 62.406 = -25.029
  3. Signed miss = -30.00 − (-25.029) = -4.971
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.971| = 4.971

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81628, race ID 8976 (538 database).