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2022 Governor · AZ

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2022-11-06 (2 days before the election) · 1,094 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 46.9% · Republican 50.5%

R+3.6

The certified result

Democrat 50.32% · Republican 49.65%

D+0.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.9 − 50.5 = -3.60
  2. Actual margin = 50.318 − 49.650 = 0.668
  3. Signed miss = -3.60 − (0.668) = -4.269
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.269| = 4.269

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.3 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81629, race ID 8954 (538 database).