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2022 Senate · GA

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2022-11-29 (7 days before the election) · 888 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 50.8% · Republican 49.2%

D+1.6

The certified result

Democrat 51.40% · Republican 48.60%

D+2.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50.8 − 49.2 = 1.60
  2. Actual margin = 51.403 − 48.597 = 2.806
  3. Signed miss = 1.60 − (2.806) = -1.206
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.206| = 1.206

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81734, race ID 9552 (538 database).