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2022 Senate · GA

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2022-11-28 (8 days before the election) · 1,214 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 47%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.40% · Republican 48.60%

D+2.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 47 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.403 − 48.597 = 2.806
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (2.806) = 0.194
  4. Absolute miss = |0.194| = 0.194

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81740, race ID 9552 (538 database).