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2022 Senate · GA

SSRS · fieldwork ended 2022-11-27 (9 days before the election) · 1,184 respondents · Live Phone/Probability Panel

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 48%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.40% · Republican 48.60%

D+2.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 48 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.403 − 48.597 = 2.806
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (2.806) = 1.194
  4. Absolute miss = |1.194| = 1.194

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81741, race ID 9552 (538 database).