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2022 Senate · GA

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2022-12-04 (2 days before the election) · 750 respondents · Text

The poll said

Democrat 50.5% · Republican 48.4%

D+2.1

The certified result

Democrat 51.40% · Republican 48.60%

D+2.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50.5 − 48.4 = 2.10
  2. Actual margin = 51.403 − 48.597 = 2.806
  3. Signed miss = 2.10 − (2.806) = -0.706
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.706| = 0.706

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81759, race ID 9552 (538 database).