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2022 Senate · GA

Mitchell Research & Communications · fieldwork ended 2022-12-04 (2 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 45%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.40% · Republican 48.60%

D+2.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 45 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.403 − 48.597 = 2.806
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (2.806) = 2.194
  4. Absolute miss = |2.194| = 2.194

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81761, race ID 9552 (538 database).