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2022 Senate · GA

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2022-12-04 (2 days before the election) · 1,099 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 51.1% · Republican 47.4%

D+3.7

The certified result

Democrat 51.40% · Republican 48.60%

D+2.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51.1 − 47.4 = 3.70
  2. Actual margin = 51.403 − 48.597 = 2.806
  3. Signed miss = 3.70 − (2.806) = 0.894
  4. Absolute miss = |0.894| = 0.894

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81762, race ID 9552 (538 database).