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2022 Senate · NV

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2022-11-06 (2 days before the election) · 1,089 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 45.4% · Republican 50.3%

R+4.9

The certified result

Democrat 48.81% · Republican 48.04%

D+0.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.4 − 50.3 = -4.90
  2. Actual margin = 48.814 − 48.037 = 0.777
  3. Signed miss = -4.90 − (0.777) = -5.677
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.677| = 5.677

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.7 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81775, race ID 8937 (538 database).