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2022 Governor · MI

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2022-11-06 (2 days before the election) · 1,097 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 48.2% · Republican 48.5%

R+0.3

The certified result

Democrat 54.47% · Republican 43.94%

D+10.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.2 − 48.5 = -0.30
  2. Actual margin = 54.472 − 43.941 = 10.531
  3. Signed miss = -0.30 − (10.531) = -10.831
  4. Absolute miss = |-10.831| = 10.831

The poll overstated the Republican by 10.8 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81776, race ID 8969 (538 database).