2024 House · New York
Siena · fieldwork ended 2024-02-06 (7 days before the election) · 694 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 44%
D+4.0
The certified result
Democrat 53.92% · Republican 45.88%
D+8.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 44 = 4.00
- Actual margin = 53.922 − 45.883 = 8.039
- Signed miss = 4.00 − (8.039) = -4.039
- Absolute miss = |-4.039| = 4.039
The poll overstated the Republican by 4.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 house_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 85894, race ID 10014 (538 database).
population: lv