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2024 House · New York

Emerson · fieldwork ended 2024-02-05 (8 days before the election) · 742 respondents · IVR/Text-to-Web/Email

The poll said

Democrat 51.9% · Republican 48.1%

D+3.8

The certified result

Democrat 53.92% · Republican 45.88%

D+8.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51.9 − 48.1 = 3.80
  2. Actual margin = 53.922 − 45.883 = 8.039
  3. Signed miss = 3.80 − (8.039) = -4.239
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.239| = 4.239

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 house_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 85909, race ID 10014 (538 database).

population: lv