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2024 Senate · Texas

ActiVote · fieldwork ended 2024-10-16 (20 days before the election) · 400 respondents · App Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47.2% · Republican 52.8%

R+5.6

The certified result

Democrat 44.56% · Republican 53.05%

R+8.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.2 − 52.8 = -5.60
  2. Actual margin = 44.556 − 53.054 = -8.498
  3. Signed miss = -5.60 − (-8.498) = 2.897
  4. Absolute miss = |2.897| = 2.897

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88740, race ID 9530 (538 database).

population: lv