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2024 President · Texas

ActiVote · fieldwork ended 2024-10-16 (20 days before the election) · 400 respondents · App Panel

The poll said

Democrat 44.2% · Republican 55.8%

R+11.6

The certified result

Democrat 42.46% · Republican 56.14%

R+13.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44.2 − 55.8 = -11.60
  2. Actual margin = 42.457 − 56.140 = -13.683
  3. Signed miss = -11.60 − (-13.683) = 2.083
  4. Absolute miss = |2.083| = 2.083

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88741, race ID 8889 (538 database).

population: lv