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2024 President · Tennessee

ActiVote · fieldwork ended 2024-10-16 (20 days before the election) · 400 respondents · App Panel

The poll said

Democrat 37.6% · Republican 62.4%

R+24.8

The certified result

Democrat 34.47% · Republican 64.19%

R+29.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 37.6 − 62.4 = -24.80
  2. Actual margin = 34.474 − 64.194 = -29.720
  3. Signed miss = -24.80 − (-29.720) = 4.920
  4. Absolute miss = |4.920| = 4.920

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88742, race ID 8886 (538 database).

population: lv