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2024 President · Massachusetts

ActiVote · fieldwork ended 2024-10-16 (20 days before the election) · 400 respondents · App Panel

The poll said

Democrat 66.6% · Republican 33.4%

D+33.2

The certified result

Democrat 61.22% · Republican 36.02%

D+25.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 66.6 − 33.4 = 33.20
  2. Actual margin = 61.219 − 36.023 = 25.196
  3. Signed miss = 33.20 − (25.196) = 8.004
  4. Absolute miss = |8.004| = 8.004

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88743, race ID 8811 (538 database).

population: lv