2024 President · Arizona
Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2024-10-15 (21 days before the election) · 653 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 48%
D+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 46.69% · Republican 52.22%
R+5.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 48 = 1.00
- Actual margin = 46.690 − 52.217 = -5.527
- Signed miss = 1.00 − (-5.527) = 6.527
- Absolute miss = |6.527| = 6.527
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.5 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88746, race ID 8759 (538 database).
population: lv