2024 President · Maryland
Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2024-10-15 (21 days before the election) · 490 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel
The poll said
Democrat 64% · Republican 31%
D+33.0
The certified result
Democrat 62.62% · Republican 34.08%
D+28.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 64 − 31 = 33.00
- Actual margin = 62.619 − 34.083 = 28.536
- Signed miss = 33.00 − (28.536) = 4.464
- Absolute miss = |4.464| = 4.464
The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88748, race ID 8814 (538 database).
population: lv