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2024 Senate · Maryland

Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2024-10-15 (21 days before the election) · 490 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 38%

D+13.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.64% · Republican 42.84%

D+11.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 38 = 13.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.641 − 42.840 = 11.801
  3. Signed miss = 13.00 − (11.801) = 1.198
  4. Absolute miss = |1.198| = 1.198

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88748, race ID 9513 (538 database).

population: lv