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2024 President · Michigan

Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2024-10-15 (21 days before the election) · 1,065 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 47%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.31% · Republican 49.73%

R+1.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 47 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.313 − 49.727 = -1.414
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (-1.414) = 3.414
  4. Absolute miss = |3.414| = 3.414

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.4 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88749, race ID 8820 (538 database).

population: lv