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2024 Senate · Michigan

Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2024-10-15 (21 days before the election) · 1,065 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 41%

D+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.64% · Republican 48.30%

D+0.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 41 = 7.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.639 − 48.298 = 0.341
  3. Signed miss = 7.00 − (0.341) = 6.659
  4. Absolute miss = |6.659| = 6.659

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88749, race ID 9515 (538 database).

population: lv