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2024 President · Nevada

Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2024-10-15 (21 days before the election) · 496 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 45%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.49% · Republican 50.59%

R+3.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 45 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.493 − 50.592 = -3.099
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (-3.099) = 7.099
  4. Absolute miss = |7.099| = 7.099

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88750, race ID 8857 (538 database).

population: lv