2024 Senate · Nevada
Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2024-10-15 (21 days before the election) · 496 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel
The poll said
Democrat 52% · Republican 37%
D+15.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.87% · Republican 46.22%
D+1.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 52 − 37 = 15.00
- Actual margin = 47.866 − 46.223 = 1.643
- Signed miss = 15.00 − (1.643) = 13.357
- Absolute miss = |13.357| = 13.357
The poll overstated the Democrat by 13.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88750, race ID 9521 (538 database).
population: lv