2024 President · Ohio
Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2024-10-15 (21 days before the election) · 1,243 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel
The poll said
Democrat 45% · Republican 52%
R+7.0
The certified result
Democrat 43.93% · Republican 55.14%
R+11.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 45 − 52 = -7.00
- Actual margin = 43.928 − 55.136 = -11.208
- Signed miss = -7.00 − (-11.208) = 4.207
- Absolute miss = |4.207| = 4.207
The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88752, race ID 8863 (538 database).
population: lv