2024 President · Pennsylvania
Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2024-10-15 (21 days before the election) · 1,395 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 48%
D+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.66% · Republican 50.37%
R+1.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 48 = 1.00
- Actual margin = 48.663 − 50.373 = -1.710
- Signed miss = 1.00 − (-1.710) = 2.710
- Absolute miss = |2.710| = 2.710
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.7 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88753, race ID 8872 (538 database).
population: lv