2024 Senate · Pennsylvania
Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2024-10-15 (21 days before the election) · 1,395 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 41%
D+8.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.60% · Republican 48.82%
R+0.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 41 = 8.00
- Actual margin = 48.601 − 48.818 = -0.217
- Signed miss = 8.00 − (-0.217) = 8.217
- Absolute miss = |8.217| = 8.217
The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.2 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88753, race ID 9527 (538 database).
population: lv