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2024 President · Texas

Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2024-10-15 (21 days before the election) · 2,048 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 50%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 42.46% · Republican 56.14%

R+13.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 50 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 42.457 − 56.140 = -13.683
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (-13.683) = 9.683
  4. Absolute miss = |9.683| = 9.683

The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88754, race ID 8889 (538 database).

population: lv