2024 Senate · Texas
Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2024-10-15 (21 days before the election) · 2,048 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel
The poll said
Democrat 45% · Republican 46%
R+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 44.56% · Republican 53.05%
R+8.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 45 − 46 = -1.00
- Actual margin = 44.556 − 53.054 = -8.498
- Signed miss = -1.00 − (-8.498) = 7.497
- Absolute miss = |7.497| = 7.497
The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88754, race ID 9530 (538 database).
population: lv