2024 Senate · Wisconsin
Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2024-10-15 (21 days before the election) · 527 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 44%
D+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.33% · Republican 48.48%
D+0.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 44 = 5.00
- Actual margin = 49.333 − 48.484 = 0.849
- Signed miss = 5.00 − (0.849) = 4.151
- Absolute miss = |4.151| = 4.151
The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88755, race ID 9534 (538 database).
population: lv