2024 Senate · Wisconsin
RMG Research · fieldwork ended 2024-10-16 (20 days before the election) · 787 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel
The poll said
Democrat 50% · Republican 47%
D+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.33% · Republican 48.48%
D+0.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 50 − 47 = 3.00
- Actual margin = 49.333 − 48.484 = 0.849
- Signed miss = 3.00 − (0.849) = 2.151
- Absolute miss = |2.151| = 2.151
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88756, race ID 9534 (538 database).
population: lv