2024 President · Washington
PPP · fieldwork ended 2024-10-17 (19 days before the election) · 571 respondents · IVR/Text · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 55% · Republican 40%
D+15.0
The certified result
Democrat 57.23% · Republican 39.01%
D+18.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 55 − 40 = 15.00
- Actual margin = 57.229 − 39.011 = 18.218
- Signed miss = 15.00 − (18.218) = -3.218
- Absolute miss = |-3.218| = 3.218
The poll overstated the Republican by 3.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88766, race ID 8902 (538 database).
population: lv